Will They or Won't They?

As I'm sure you're aware, the fighting in the Middle East between Israel and Iranian terrorist proxies Hamas and Hezbollah continues to mount and intensify, and the nations of the world are looking on with increasingly bated breath as the situation continues to spiral toward frightening new levels—levels that were all but unthinkable until recently and that are evoking images and warnings concerning the potential congealing of a World War III scenario.

As I wrote in a recent Commentary entry, some pundits are opining that there seems to be no end in sight, and that this conflict between Israel and her enemies is shaping up to be a "forever war." As I pointed out in those same remarks, however, as prophetically aware believers, we know this is not the case. We know this is not a "forever war," and indeed have a pretty good idea where all this is heading based on a knowledge of God's prophetic Word.

Many of those who study end-time prophecy are convinced this escalating conflict is heading toward the fulfillment of Ezekiel 38–39, in which a coalition of nations including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and several Northern African countries gather to descend upon Israel to wipe the Jewish nation off the map once and for all. But before they can lay a finger on Israel, they are decimated by the mighty hand of a God who fights for His people and who is about to turn His face back to them.

Well, yeah, but what about... If you happen to be a sharp student of Scripture who is thinking along the lines of "Wait a second, I thought according to Ezekiel 38:11–14 that Israel had to be in a state of rest or at peace when Gog-Magog went down...and it sure doesn't look like they're at rest or at peace," see this for a little something that may not have occurred to you. And although I presented the idea I describe in that article as a possibility, it's beginning to look more and more like the real deal.

Now, there are some outstanding Bible teachers (the venerable Mark Hitchcock for one) who see the Gog-Magog scenario working out a bit differently, and believe the attack Ezekiel describes comes after the launching of the Tribulation (primarily for the reason I refer to in the preceding paragraph). But as I have discussed in the past, I am reasonably well convinced Gog-Magog must occur before the launching of the Tribulation because I believe that it sets the stage for the scenario that will lead to the treaty of Daniel 9:27 that gets the Tribulation underway in the first place.

And the view of Gog-Magog as setting the stage for the Tribulation provides the backdrop for the ideas I want to discuss in this article.

Following Israel's recent devastating blows to Iran's terrorist proxy Hezbollah, there has been increased buzz about the possibility of Israel taking it to the limit, so to speak, and carrying out strategic strikes directly against certain elements of Iran's nuclear weapons program. Iran is either a matter of weeks (according to some) or a matter of months (according to others) away from being the proud owners of a nuclear weapon, and Israel has publicly stated in no uncertain terms that they are fully committed to doing whatever is necessary to prevent that from ever happening.

A look at a variety of news sources reveals that the buzz over Israel's potential strike against Iran's nuclear facilities ranges from...

"Oh no, they'll never do that...it's way too dangerous and it'll never work! Besides, it could drag the U.S. into World War III, and Prezident Harris wouldn't like that one little bit, no sirree!"

all the way to...

"All systems go...next stop, Natanz! VA-ROOOM!!"

Discussions run the gamut from how politically disastrous the whole idea is and how it could drag the world kicking and screaming into a World War III scenario, to how logistically feasible it is and how it's Israel's only sensible option. In other words, it's anything from one extreme to the other:

Many have forgotten that Israel has done it before (Iraq, 1981), and many believe they will have to do it again. So that's the $64,000 question:

Q. Will Israel actually carry out one or more strikes on any of Iran's nuclear weapons facilities in the near future?

Also, note that such a strike may not necessarily be the next move on Israel's military agenda. It could come at some point after other forms of retaliation, at a time when it is a bit less expected. Just saying.

Reasons why I think they will

In the above question, I added the words "in the near future" because if they do, it is a virtual certainty that it will be relatively soon. As I said, experts place Iran within a matter of weeks or perhaps several months of being in possession of a nuclear weapon—so any way you slice it, Israel knows full well Iran is getting very close to their nuclear finish line.

But again: Will they or won't they? That's the burning question before us. Obviously, I don't know—but I will go ahead and admit to you straight up that I am inclined to think Israel will carry out such an attack at some point. What I want to do is go over a few reasons why I believe this will be the case, and those reasons generally tie in logically with what we can garner from Scripture about the attack of Gog-Magog.

Carved in stone: The prophecies given in God's Word will be fulfilled to the letter no matter what Israel does or doesn't do—no matter what any nation on earth does or doesn't do. Ezekiel 38–39 will be precisely fulfilled whether Israel ever launches an attack on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities or not. That's carved in stone, and not even up for discussion.

Now, if it turns out that Israel doesn't attack any of Iran's nuclear facilities, all it means is that my opinion is simply wrong—as it has been known to be from time to time, just like everybody else's. Get over it? I already am.

But what's infinitely more important is this:

All that means is that God's inerrant Word will be fulfilled just as precisely in some different manner that we (I) might not be anticipating.

Until it happens, that is.

1. Follow the leader.

If you have been following events in the Middle East to any degree at all over the last several years, you are fully aware of two fundamental facts:

1. Iran is the country that has been leading the ongoing attacks on Israel, primarily through their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran is the country that has been stomping and shouting and singing and dancing about how they seek to destroy Israel, the Little Satan. Iran is the country that has been at the forefront of the maniacal drive to destroy the Jewish nation.

Iran...not Russia.

And Iran is the country that has all but openly advertised the fact that they are racing toward a nuclear weapon that will enable them to do just that.

2. Russia has pretty much kept their nose out of Iran's drive to destroy Israel, presumably because they are preoccupied with their ongoing war with Ukraine. In other words, you might say Russia has better things to do right now.

In a sense, these two facts succinctly sum up the current situation.

Now, consider: If Iran actually does successfully reach the nuclear finish line in the next couple of months, as many are convinced they are on track to do, then what exactly do we make of the following passage of Scripture?

In other words, God's Word makes it completely clear that Russia is the leader of this group of nations that attack Israel, a group that includes Iran (aka Persia) as a member.

Yeah, yeah...you already knew that, OK. But I said all that in order to get you to stop and consider one fundamental question that doesn't really have an easy or obvious answer if Iran does in fact succeed in reaching their goal of possessing one or more nuclear weapons:

If Iran goes on to complete a nuclear weapon
as planned, why do we see them merely tagging
along with a group of nations led by Russia?

I mean, help me out here. Whatever happened to Iran's Big Plan, i.e. their plan to annihilate the nation of Israel with their shiny new nuclear weapons? Why do we see them in Ezekiel's prophecy taking a back seat and following the leader of the pack in the form of Russia in the big drive to wipe Israel out of existence? In other words...

What happened to Iran's big nuclear weapons program that was going to enable them to destroy Israel all by themselves??

(Uhm...maybe we should ask the IDF, ya think?) Of course, if Israel does strike Iran's nuclear weapons program and does at least enough damage to set it back a year or two (and leave Iran with little reason to believe Israel couldn't or wouldn't do it again in the future), suddenly the fact that Iran is not the nation leading the way in the attack of Gog-Magog and instead is just one member of a pack of nations led by Russia and is merely playing a supporting role in that attack suddenly makes perfect sense.

But if Iran's got 'em, it really doesn't make sense.

So...that begs the question:

2. Who's got 'em?

Some people might argue as follows:

Well, who says Gog-Magog has to involve nuclear weapons?

In other words, some might argue that the Gog-Magog coalition could just be a huge group of forces armed with conventional weapons that's all set to pounce on Israel. Isn't that scary enough? So that's the question:

Who says the attack of Gog-Magog
has to involve nuclear weapons?

Would you believe the Author of Scripture?

As I discuss in more detail here, in Ezekiel 39:9–16 the prophet describes events that occur in the aftermath of the failed attack of Gog-Magog, and several verses make it sound for all the world as though there is a nuclear cleanup being carried out. For example:

I mean, if this isn't describing a nuclear cleanup, then I have no clue what it's describing. Not only that, but after the failed attack, Israel will burn the weapons with fire for seven years, thus using them as a source of energy:

And please note that it is an established fact that unused nuclear weapons can be used as a source of fuel.

And I'm going to assume the prophet Ezekiel didn't know that.

So the plain text of Scripture itself makes it reasonably clear that nuclear weapons do in fact come into play in the attack of Gog-Magog in some manner, although precisely how they come into play is open to speculation. A nuclear boo-boo triggered by the hand of God, perhaps? Who knows. But any way you look at it, it's difficult to read the above passage and fail to see that it speaks to the presence of nuclear weapons.

But the point is that if Israel effectively eliminates Iran's nuclear weapons program from the equation, then whose are they? Who provides those nuclear weapons? Who's got 'em? See no. 1 above:

The leader of the pack, that's who.

3. Got a favor to ask...

So, Russia is the leader in the attack of Gog-Magog—Scripture makes this 100 percent clear. But as I said, Iran has obviously been the primary driving force in the drive to wipe out Israel, not Russia, who has been busy with Ukraine. And that begs the question:

What makes Iran let Russia step up and take the lead in their Big Plan?

My point is that if things were to continue more or less the way they are now and Iran does in fact come into possession of a nuclear weapon, they would have no obvious need or reason to let Russia take the lead in their plan to wipe out Israel. They have made it crystal clear that they are planning to do it themselves with a shiny new nuclear weapon that is nearing completion, and they are perfectly content to use their terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to get the IDF stretched out and fully engaged in order to help them get the job done. In other words, this is Iran's thing...not Russia's.

So...why would Iran suddenly step down and let Russia lead the charge? Why would Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian give Russian President Vladimir Putin a call one fine morning and say:

"Hey Vlad, got a favor to ask..."

Why indeed. Well, consider: Most experts agree that it would be virtually impossible for Israel to completely destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program—and based on what I've read, I suspect they're right. They argue that such a feat would require a full-on invasion, and most are of the opinion that such an invasion is probably not in the cards at this point for a variety of reasons.

Not only that, but the important elements of Iran's nuclear program are fully backed up, and virtually any aspect of the program could be quickly restarted.

But what Israel can do is carry out strategic precision strikes that would set Iran's progress back—perhaps a year, maybe two. And in all likelihood they could do it again in another year, maybe two. In other words, it is not inconceivable that Israel could repeat such strikes on an as-needed basis in order to keep Iran from ever reaching that nuclear finish line.

Israel has pledged to do just that, and personally I have seen nothing that would indicate that they're anything less than deadly serious.

Consider: The leaders of Iran may be demonically oppressed, but they're not mentally challenged. They know full well that if Israel were to muster the chutzpah to carry out one or more precision strikes to damage one or more of their nuclear weapons facilities and as a result set their progress back a year or two, it is entirely possible that Iranian leaders would read the proverbial handwriting on the proverbial wall. In other words:

The Iranians might be pushed to admit they could use some help.

And that help would only be a phone call to Moscow away.

In addition, something tells me that Iran's demonically fueled desire to see the Jewish nation completely obliterated and every Jewish person dead would probably outweigh any perceived need to save face or maintain their image as the Destroyer of the Little Satan.

I believe the prospect of seeing the Jewish nation wiped off the face of the earth would go a long way in helping them get over a little loss of face.

Did somebody say "chutzpah"? I read a news article not long ago that said the Israelis were brimming with chutzpah these days. Well, after a stunning intelligence coup involving the simultaneous explosion of 5,000 pagers recently purchased by Hezbollah from an obscure company that was most likely a front set up by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, not to mention the even more stunning elimination of the entire upper echelon of Hezbollah's command structure through pinpoint missile strikes, I think it's safe to say that article is right: There is no shortage of chutzpah in Israel right now.

4. Strategic partners.

Over the last several decades, cooperation between Russia and Iran has been growing and expanding, and over just the last two or three years their military cooperation in particular has been growing like gangbusters. For example, just recently Russia promised to provide Iran with advanced S-400 air defense systems (although they have yet to be delivered), and Iran has been sending Russia close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs).

I might also mention that both Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin are planning to sign their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement before the end of October 2024. So it is quite clear that the military cooperation between these two countries is set to continue and to flourish.

My point is simply that Russia and Iran have become quite the military bedfellows in recent years, and that relationship appears to be growing and deepening at a rate that is causing concern not just to Israel, but to major Western powers as well.

One question that occurs to me, however, is this:

Q. What kind of fruit would this deepening military cooperation bear if Israel were to carry out a strike against Iran's nuclear weapons facilities as we have been discussing?

On one hand, you've got Iran, where the leaders loathe and desire to utterly destroy Israel and the Jewish people primarily for religious reasons because they suffer from a case of satanically induced IDS (Israel Derangement Syndrome). On the other hand, you've got Russia, which was a friend of Israel up until the current conflict in Ukraine.

What've you done for me lately: I've touched on this in the past, but before the current war in Ukraine got started in February 2022, Russia and Israel had been on comparatively friendly terms since Israel's re-establishment as a nation in 1948. But Ukraine changed everything.

As the mainstream media wasted no time in turning the conflict into an excuse to condemn the big, bad Russian bullies and support the poor, heroic Ukrainian underdogs, the Israelis found themselves between a rock and a hard place:

• If they were to openly support Russia, they would face even more intense international condemnation (which would certainly lead to the further collapse of much-needed support from America).

• On the other hand, if they were to openly support Ukraine like everyone else, they risked turning a reliable old friend into a powerful new enemy. They did their best to straddle the fence, offering token humanitarian support to Ukraine, but not the weapons Zelenskyy desperately pleaded for.

But Israel's reluctance to openly support Russia wasn't lost on Vladimir Putin, who, if nothing else, is a man who puts great stock in loyalty. Putin viewed it as nothing less than a stab in the back, and as a result the relationship between Russia and Israel has been in a death spiral for the last two and a half years and is now pretty much dead and buried.

So under the circumstances, it is certainly not difficult to envision Russia stepping up to offer military assistance to Iran to avenge such a dastardly attack being carried out by Israel—and hey, take a spoil while they're at it, since their former friend's gigantic deposits of natural gas would represent Russia's ticket to even greater wealth and regional power.

Although some of the subtleties and nuances of these complex geopolitical relationships are admittedly a bit on the stratospheric side for my taste, one thing shines through to me with blazing clarity:

If Israel were to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, it is extremely likely that Russia would be quick to offer strong military support to their "strategic partner" against their now former friend.

And those strategic partners would be ready for a date with Ezekiel 38–39.

Soup's on

As you can see, the point of this article is speculative in nature. Although I generally tend to go easy on the speculative aspect of things, I made an exception in this case because this is a genuinely pressing issue. I say that because if Israel does in fact launch some kind of attack on Iran's nuclear facilities at some point after I post this article, then at least I can bask in the satisfaction of having called it.

I'm kidding, but just barely. =;)

Seriously...in reality this topic has great potential importance for every believer out there, because if Israel does attack Iran's nuclear facilities, it could very easily blow the lid off the boiling pot the Middle East has become in the last few years. It would be far more than a mere step forward in the sequence of events that lead up to the fulfillment of Ezekiel 38–39:

It would be a staggering lunge toward that fulfillment.

And why does that have "great potential importance for every believer out there"? Here's why:

I am convinced from Scripture that the Rapture occurs prior to the climax of Gog-Magog. Although I refrain from dogmatically ruling out the possibility that it occurs very shortly after that climax, Scripture seems to point to it being prior to it. This is due to the fact that the prophet Ezekiel makes it clear that God uses His miraculous intervention to thwart this existential attack on His people to turn His face back to them, and begin the process of pouring His Spirit out on them and drawing them back into a relationship with Him, and ultimately with His Son, the promised Messiah Israel rejected and crucified two thousand years ago. As God states in the final verse of Ezekiel 39:

Throughout Scripture, God typically deals with Israel and the Church separately, as Paul clearly indicates in his letter to the Romans:

In other words, Paul is effectively telling us point blank that it is the Rapture itself that demarcates God's dealings with the Church from the resumption of His dealings with His people Israel.

And that's exactly why watching the current
brewing of events in the Middle East should
have all prophetically aware believers on the
edge of their spiritual seats right about now.

Bottom line: Look up!

One result of this is that now, in the closing days of the Church Age as the rumblings and grumblings of the Tribulation are growing louder and we watch the Middle East congeal into the condition God's Word says it will be in during the run-up to the Tribulation, it effectively gives us a barometer to help us judge the potential nearness of the Rapture. Certainly not its precise timing, of course, but at least a rough sense of how little time we may have left before that great and glorious day dawns bright and eternal.

So the point is that as we see the ingredients of one of God's house specialties known as Stew à la Gog-Magog stirring in the pot and beginning to simmer, we can contemplate the question of "Will they or won't they?" and know for certain that before that pot has a chance to boil over, we're going to hear the Master Chef shout out those words we are so hungrily waiting to hear:

Soup's on!

And there is certainly no need to ask "Will He or won't He?" for this one, because His Word shouts it out with thundering clarity:

Greg Lauer — OCT '24

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 OCT '24 

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